Opinion is divided upon the important question whether recent military developments in Germany are merely interesting exercises and tests of their new army machine, or whether they have some more serious purpose. When it is stated that Germany will have before the end of the month 1,500,000 soldiers under arms, that they have retained all serving conscripts with the colours for an indefinite period, that they have called up one, two, or perhaps three classes of reserves, it is pointed out that other countries have from time to time exercised portions of their reserves in peace manœuvres, and it is only natural that the German leaders should make a similar experiment, no doubt on a somewhat larger scale. When it is mentioned that all farm horses and all serviceable motor-lorries are being requisitioned for the artillery and transport from August 15, that all officials must be back at their posts from leave by the same date, and that no men under 65 may leave the country, it is explained that this is only an example of German thoroughness designed to lend an air of reality to the mimic warfare which will be proceeding in the various commands for an unspecified time to come.
When we learned that the regions in which the largest concentrations for manœuvre purposes were being made were on the Rhine front and the approaches to Czechoslovakia, it was suggested that it was no more than reasonable that the new German army should be acquainted with these areas of particular strategic interest. If the German public shows signs of nervousness and alarm, we must remember that under the Totalitarian System they are only told what is thought fit by their rulers, and are consequently an easy prey to rumour. If the Berlin Stock Exchange has experienced a severe fall, that is, no doubt, because the Jews are selling their securities out of spite. The sharp rise in the price of gold in the world market and the heaviness of Wall Street are simply another case of 'the jitters.'
Some months ago a decree of universal conscription for all purposes was made in Germany, and the Government assumed the power to take any men from any work and employ them as they please for as long as they like. This enormous measure attracted too little attention. When scores, and even hundreds, of thousands, of workmen were suddenly called from their civil occupations, and building schemes and public works were brought to a standstill, this was, of course, simply the fulfilment of the same decree. When these great masses of workmen and labourers were reported to have reinforced the large numbers already working upon the German fortifications opposite France, powerful British newspapers explained that this was purely defensive, and therefore, in essence, a pacific action wrung from the Nazi leaders of Germany by the fear lest they should be assaulted by the wicked Democracies on their western border.
A policy of feverish emergency-fortification on practically all frontiers against such a danger would naturally carry with it the need for extreme privacy, and hence the closing of wide zones of country to tourists, especially those who might hold military rank. Should anyone remark that a man wishing to commit a crime in his back garden might well begin by taking the precaution of locking his front gate, he would at once be answered that the well-known peaceful sentiments of the Nazi leaders, their respect for treaties and public law, their aversion from anything in the nature of violence or bloodshed, and their often-repeated desire to establish friendly relations with Great Britain, make any such comment entirely inappropriate. If any proof, we are told, were needed of the absence of all sinister motives on the part of the German Nazis, it would be found in the open manner in which all this immense peace-time mobilisation has been and is being conducted.
I have tried to set forth clearly the views of the optimists, and we must all fervently hope and pray that they are right. It is quite certain that if they are right, and if this vast and immensely costly embodiment of German armed strength should pass off in a perfectly peaceful, good-humoured manner, and if in a few months everything settles down again happily, there will be a universal sensation of relief and of renewed confidence. On the other hand, if the optimists were proved wrong, then it might be that the Governments and countries who had shared their views would find themselves at an enormous disadvantage in the opening stages of a world war. A great responsibility, therefore, rests on anyone who, through mental inertia, August holiday mood, or refusal to confront facts with a steady eye, misleads the mass of ordinary quiet and friendly people. It would be only common prudence for other countries besides Germany to have these same kind of manœuvres at the same time and to place their precautionary forces in such a position that, should the optimists be wrong, they would not be completely ruined. Indeed, any failure to take counter-measures in good time would only be an encouragement to evil ambitions, if, indeed, one can conceive such things being possible.
The British Government have sent Lord Runciman to Prague with a sincere desire to find the way to a fair and friendly settlement of the Sudeten-German problem. Those who know him are sure that he would feel in honour bound to state the truth and not to deny justice to either party. Assuming that his mission runs its normal course, we shall presently have a practical working compromise which will give the Sudeten-German a free and equal chance with other races inside a more broadly based Czechoslovak Republic. Such a plan might be the rallying ground of all the good forces which sustain the cause of world peace. There are many occasions when an outsider can help far better than those embroiled in controversy.
But, after all, the immediate fortunes of the world lie in the hands of Herr Hitler. He entertains Sir Ian Hamilton in his mountain retreat. Apparently there, according to the General's account, it is all birds' nests and goodwill. The idea, says the General, of war being planned in such surroundings is absurd. He may be right, and, if so, this period of increasing strain drawing to its climax will be succeeded by a far more solidly founded peace than we have at this moment.
There is only one further point which it is useful to make at the present time. No one can foresee the effects produced on himself and his fellows by the spectacle of bloody lethal violence. If a score of people are sitting round a conference table in strenuous argument, and one of them draws a pistol and shoots two or three of his opponents, the whole temper of the conference is altered, and it becomes very difficult to recall its members to the other points upon the agenda. Three days before Britain entered the Great War, four members out of five in the Cabinet and nine out of ten in the House of Commons would have been found inveterately opposed to our intervention upon the Continent. Four days later these proportions were reversed.
It was not argument or reflection that produced this change of view. People simply would not believe that Germany would really attack France and Belgium. But when the German vanguards broke into Luxemburg and began to hack their way through Belgium, when guns fired and men were slaughtered, everyone knew instinctively where they stood and what we ought to do. An episode like the trampling-down of Czechoslovakia by an overwhelming force would change the whole current of human ideas and would eventually draw upon the aggressor a wrath which would in the end involve all the greatest nations of the world.
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