In 1938, the civilised nations of the world will receive consideration principally on account of the armaments they possess, and are able to pay for. The contentment of their peoples, the freedom of their institutions, the impartiality of their courts, their ancient traditions, their standard of working-class comfort, their philosophy, poetry and art, will not count very much for fame in this degraded age. Arms and the men to use them will be the criterion by which hungry aggressive States will measure their steps and the small countries their behaviour.
We must be glad in these circumstances that the British Navy is strong. Even during the years of disarmament, at least £50,000,000 sterling was spent every year upon keeping in order the plant and organisation already established on the largest scale. A proportion of the battleships and cruisers have been completely rebuilt in the guise of refitting. Since the Italian alarm in 1935 the Admiralty have had whatever money they cared to ask in order to fit all the vessels of the fleet with every kind of modern appliance and equipment. In particular, protection by guns and armour against air attack has been revolutionised. Lord Fisher used to say, 'The British Navy always travels first-class.' I can hardly believe that so capable a body as the Naval Lords have not made good use of their opportunities.
We are now spending at the rate of about four times as much on the fleet as, for instance, Italy; and no doubt the new estimates will show a very large upward surge. An immense programme of new construction in vessels of every kind is now clanging its way through the dockyards and private firms. Five battleships are being built. Obviously another squadron of the largest type must be begun in the programme of 1938. All other branches of the fleet are being developed in due proportion, and the man-power of the long-service professional Navy rises as fast as possible, subject only to training efficiency. The methods of dealing with the submarine menace are incomparably superior to any discovered in the Great War. There is the growing conviction that the air menace against properly armed and protected ships of war will not be of a decisive character.
If this be so, the ultimate command of the seas will rest with whichever Power can at any moment draw out the strongest line of battle in blue water. At the present time no other Power in Europe, except the British, can attempt to form a line of battle, nor, indeed, all the Powers of Europe together. By treaty the United States is entitled to build to full parity with Great Britain. As far as we can see, President Roosevelt has every intention of acting up to the spirit of that agreement. Therefore we may be easy on that score. A feeble, ill-armed United States Navy would at the present time be an additional danger to the world. A strong and efficient United States fleet inspires no one with fear but evil-doers.
The French Navy is also an important element in the problem of world security. In all the circumstances it may be safely said that the control of the oceans and great waters rests with the Parliamentary nations, and that this control will sustain their commerce and their credit. It is surely well that this should be so, for none of these Powers have any designs against the independence, welfare or prosperity of other countries. They may have their own opinions about the way these countries are governed, but they seek nothing from them, neither their ox nor their ass nor anything that is theirs.
Great Britain has never had a large army in time of peace. She has a small professional force which is little more than an Imperial police reserve. Indeed, it is a prodigy to see the vast tracts of the world, and multitudes of people who dwell in composure, and for the most part in goodwill under the British Flag, protected by smaller military forces than even a third-class European State could mobilise. Nevertheless, it is necessary that the modest military establishment we maintain should be kept at its full strength, and should be equipped with the latest appliances and fullest supplies. Recruiting has greatly improved, and the rejuvenation of the High Command, for which the new Secretary for War, Mr. Hore-Belisha, has been praised, should initiate a period of overhaul and replenishment throughout our small army.
The British Army must not, however, be considered otherwise than in relation to the French Army, which during the year 1938 will certainly not be surpassed in the number of formed divisions by any European country except Russia, and will be superior in the maturity and cohesion of its cadres to any country. These conditions, however, are not unchanging. Although in a few years time the British Navy will increase its preponderance in Europe, the man-power of Germany will gradually become organised upon a far larger scale and in a higher degree of perfection.
If we only had to consider the fleets and armies of Europe in the immediate future, there would be no excuse for the Central and Southern European States to subject themselves to the rigours of dictatorship, and make their obeisance to the Nazi power. It is in the new element of the air that the weakness of the free peoples resides. General Weygand, who certainly would not speak without authority, defined some time ago the proportions of the European air forces as follows: Germany 3000, Italy 1200, Great Britain 1500, and France 1000. If these figures are approximately a true guide, it is very discreditable to France and Great Britain that with all their wealth and resources they have not been able to make in freedom a proper use of this delicate and superfine arm. When the House of Commons meets, it will be the duty of Parliament to seek reassurances from the British Government, not only upon the effort which is being made, but upon the results which have been achieved. We were solemnly promised by Mr. Baldwin that our metropolitan air strength should not be inferior to that of any power within striking distance. If this undertaking has not been made good, a most grievous responsibility rests upon those public men who so long delayed the process of expansion.
Money for defence is certainly pouring out in all directions in Britain. The Co-ordination Minister assures us that the expenditure will far exceed the estimate of fifteen hundred millions sterling forecasted less than a year ago. Happily, British credit is so good that no difficulty in financing these enormous charges need be expected. The friends of political and democratic freedom in Europe need not therefore look upon the sombre year now opening with undue despondency and alarm.
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