The changes in the French Government, the health of the franc, the visits and conferences of the Little Entente Powers and others in Central Europe-and the wandering planet which might perhaps have ended all our troubles-have dominated the newspapers this week. But I still feel that the attitude of Japan to the rest of the world deserves our continued attention. Several unpleasant things have happened. British policemen in the International Settlement of Shanghai have been punched and man-handled by Japanese soldiers in a manner which shows a deep-seated hatred towards white people. Japanese apologies for sinking the American gunboat Panay and killing considerable numbers of American citizens and others who enjoyed their protection, have not carried conviction either to the Government or to the people of the United States. A Japanese Admiral, by name Suetsugu, of whom the world had not previously heard, has declared himself in favour of driving the white race out of the Far East, and immediately after this declaration this Admiral has acquired a controlling position in making Japanese plans.
These plans are directed to a four years' war upon China and meeting any foreign complications that may arise therefrom. Since the Japanese armies broke into the Shanghai district, numerous opportunities have been afforded to the representatives of the white races of learning the sort of mood they are in, and the kind of respect they are likely to show to British, United States and European rights in China. It has been obvious that the small respect of Japanese soldiers and sailors for the Chinese is nothing compared to the contempt with which they regard the non-yellow races, and in particular, unhappily, the British and Americans. All this is too bad, because it was the British and Americans who cordially fostered and aided for many years the modernisation of Japan. No nations in the civilised world have watched with so much practical sympathy the great advances which Japan has made in the last fifty years. Certainly no other governments have done so much to befriend Japan or have yielded themselves more readily to the hope that Western science and knowledge would be in this case a unifying force between Japan and her world companions.
We must recognise, however reluctantly, that the Mikado's Government has only an imperfect authority over the naval and military warriors of Japan, and still less over their aviators. The secret societies in the Japanese army and navy have very largely taken charge of the policy of their country. They have murdered so many politicians who were thought to be weaklings or backsliders that they have terrified the rest. It is painful to say it, but there are moments when we must feel ourselves in the presence of an army and navy which are running amok.
It must be stated quite plainly that the United States, Great Britain and the European countries have no designs upon the safety or prosperity of Japan. They have been good purchasers of Japanese merchandise. They have willingly extended the hand of courtesy to Japanese Ambassadors and Envoys. They have no aims in China except to see the Chinese people happy and free and to render them the normal services of commerce and enterprise. However, at the end of it all there is Admiral Suetsugu with his plan for driving all white people out of the East, and the bloody decks of the Panay with United States sailors trying to save helpless refugees from aeroplane bombs and subsequent machine-gun fire. One must recognise this as a very serious disappointment for the great democracies of the Western world. Evidently we should not lose heart. On the contrary, we should persevere, but we may have to persevere along a somewhat different path.
At this point one begins to look at the strength of the Japanese Navy in relation to the other great Naval Powers of the world. The Washington Conference of 1920 agreed to a ratio of five British and five American to three Japanese naval units, and to certain limits of tonnage and cannon. But that Treaty has now expired, and it is said that Japan has already embarked upon the construction of several battleships which exceed in tonnage and size of cannon those that are being built in Britain and America. The United States Navy Board will of course be compelled to review its programmes and types very searchingly. President Roosevelt's declarations seem to show that the Government of the United States would not be willing to see their naval power seriously rivalled in the Pacific Ocean at the present time. They have an ample superiority, but this might pass in a few years unless timely measures are taken.
It seems probable that a large programme of naval expansion will be undertaken in the United States, and that the American Navy will keep good pace with the British Navy in accordance with the principles of parity which govern our relations. Neither Government need be afraid of what is called starting a naval race with Japan. It is quite certain that Japan cannot possibly compete with the productive energies of either branch of the English-speaking peoples.
The immediate problem is of a different character. Its solution depends entirely upon the view-moral, political, economic-which the people of the United States take of their responsibilities in the Pacific. It is certain that no American Government is going to 'pull the chestnuts out of the fire' for the sake of British or European interest in China. It is not certain that they may not feel an interest and duty of their own. The absorption and organisation of a great part of China by Japan into a vast Asiatic naval and military power, with hundreds of millions of subjects under its sway, and animated by the principles which Admiral Suetsugu has so frankly expressed, might not upon a long view be in accordance with the safety and freedom of the people of the United States. The issue is one entirely for the decision of the American Government and people, and none of us in Europe should presume to intervene in that tremendous cogitation. No one in Great Britain would venture to ask or urge any particular course upon the Washington Government.
The British Government is, however, entitled to say that if the United States for their own purposes chose to take a lead in preserving peace and civilisation in and around the China Seas, they would be supported by Great Britain and the British Empire to the full limit of their strength. There were Anglo-American misunderstandings in 1931, but there should be no misunderstandings now. If President Roosevelt's Government feel it their duty for purely American or world purposes, to make their weight tell in the cause of peace and order in the Far East, the British Empire will associate itself with them heart and hand.
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