The sudden and lamentable events which have taken place in England during the last fortnight must not be exaggerated. They have greatly weakened the Conservative Party in the constituencies. The Liberal, Labour and non-party voters whom Mr. Baldwin had painstakingly gathered, have been summarily dismissed and will not be easy to recall. In Mr. Eden the National Government have lost their only popular figure. A fortnight ago they could have appealed to the electors with confidence. No friend would recommend them to do so now. The growing association on parallel lines between Great Britain and the United States has received a very severe setback. British foreign policy has become for the moment even more than usually incomprehensible to her friends and well-wishers on the Continent and all over the world. No explanation has been offered why, at this moment of all others, we should have gone to the rescue of the one Dictator whose misdeeds were already beginning to find him out. He was very near to collapse. By so doing we have set him up again on a pinnacle, and generally have exalted the dominance and prestige of Dictatorships in all countries.
It would, however, be a mistake to read into the motions of the British Government more than they intended themselves. It is certain that they do not mean to disinterest themselves in European affairs. Mr. Chamberlain has been eager to assert that our relations with France, which include a military arrangement, are unchanged. There is no intention to abandon the League of Nations. The process of rearmament will be pressed forward if possible at increased speed. In the upshot Great Britain, though herself substantially weakened and her enemies encouraged, is in the main standing where she stood. We have now to await the results of the conversations which Lord Perth will hold in Rome with Count Ciano, or perhaps with Signor Mussolini in person. The triumph of the Italian Dictator is remarkable. With one bound he has been carried from a position of desperate embarrassment to be courted at once by the British and German Governments. Chamberlain and Hitler alike seek his friendship. The British are negotiating with him. Hitler is about to visit Rome himself. There has never been in history any example of such magnificent bluffing.
But this is not the end. The underlying realities and verities of Europe will increasingly assert themselves. In a short time we shall know whether Mr. Chamberlain's hope of detaching Mussolini from Hitler will be realised. If it is not realised, nothing else that Mussolini could give us is of the slightest value. The withdrawal of 10,000 or 20,000 Italian troops from Spain, if balanced against a similar withdrawal of volunteers from the Republican forces, would be a great advantage to General Franco. The British recognition of the Italian 'Empire' of Ethiopia, though mortifying to great numbers of good people in England, does not solve Mussolini's problem in the slightest degree. The withdrawal of some troops from Libya, and the stopping of the abuse poured out from the Bari radio, will only benefit Britain till the weather changes.
What Mussolini wants is money. It will not be at all easy to procure this for him. It is very unlikely that the Government will face the prolonged ordeal of carrying a Loan Bill through the House of Commons. Therefore it seems that the Prime Minister has somewhat precipitately embarked upon most unpromising negotiations. If Mussolini is willing to separate from Hitler, to take his stand with France and Britain, and help sustain the independence of Austria, there will be an undoubted gain. But what chance is there of this? We shall not have to wait long before we know.
Meanwhile the constancy and stolidity of the democratic forces in Europe excites admiration. The high spirit of the French nation was evident in the great debate in the Chamber. It is extremely improbable that M. Delbos would have spoken so confidently if he had not received very considerable reassurances from the British Government. The new British Foreign Secretary, Lord Halifax, must not be dismissed as a pious devotee of 'peace at any price.' Hitherto he has wielded undue influence in the Cabinet as a vague, sincere advocate of making friends with everybody. Now in the collar of a great Department he will be brought face to face with grim duties arising from the movement of events, and I for one shall not assume he will be found unworthy of them.
Elsewhere this crowded fortnight has revealed in several quarters the innate strength of the cause of freedom in Europe. The brutal bullying of Herr Schuschnigg at Berchtesgaden, where the most horrible threats were uttered, is in its secondary stage producing a very strong national rally throughout Austria. The union of the Socialists with the Catholics gives a broad foundation to the Vienna Government which they have never had before. They have now probably two-thirds of the people of Austria behind them in defence of their independence. They could now probably face a plebiscite conducted under fair conditions without fear. But no one can tell what the reactions in Nazi Germany will be, or what new shattering blows impend upon a small unhappy State.
Czechoslovakia has also made it clear that she will fight for her independence. People underrate the strength of this virile community. They could no doubt be trampled down by Prussian boots, but the process would not be easy. Their new fortifications are formidable. Their army of 24 divisions is loyal, efficient and well supplied. The capacity of Czechoslovakia to consume steel, which is some index of war-power, is equal to that of Italy. Czechoslovakia is also protected by her alliances with Russia and with France. It was surely a great hour for the French Republic when a few days ago by an overwhelming majority the Chamber proclaimed its resolve to stand by its alliance with Czechoslovakia. Since Germany by all accounts is not yet in a position to undertake a major war in which she would be the aggressor, such a solemn declaration may do much to preserve the peace of Europe for some time. These are solid facts, and if their force is not weakened by shortsighted British action, a further breathing space may be secured while the tardy but ponderous rearmament of Britain develops.
NOTE
On March 13 Herr Hitler having launched his armies upon Austria while Europe gaped, declared the Federal State of Austria dissolved and annexed to the German Reich. France and Russia renewed their pledges to aid Czechoslovakia in the event of German aggression. Field-Marshal Goering assured the Czechoslovak Government, 'on the honour of a soldier,' of Germany's determination to respect the territorial integrity of Czechoslovakia. Lord Halifax announced that Great Britain took formal note of this assurance.
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