Although the Spanish Civil War and its surrounding complications have lately held the first place in the public mind, Czechoslovakia remains beyond all question the immediate danger-point of Europe. There is no doubt that Henlein, Hodza and President Benes are working for a settlement, and that a good settlement is possible between them on the basis of Home Rule for the Sudeten German regions within the Czechoslovakian State. Why, then, should not this be achieved? The Czechoslovakian Government owe it to France and Great Britain that nothing which reason and justice can claim should be withheld. The Sudetens have never sought annexation by Germany, except as a last and desperate resort and threat. The enthusiasm even of their leaders for incorporation in the steel framework of Prussian Nazidom has been markedly chilled by the disillusionment of the Austrian local Nazis.
It seems daily more attractive to Sudeten leaders to play a distinguished part as equal partners in a small State like Czechoslovakia than to be swallowed whole by Berlin and reduced to shapeless pulp by the close-grinding mandibles of the Gestapo. Above all, there must weigh upon both sides and all parties in Czechoslovakia the deadly thought that if in their quarrels they strike forth the flames of general war, the one consequence which can be most surely foreseen is that their land and homes, their families and possessions will be shattered and consumed in utter devastation.
Without the championship of armed Germany, Sudeten wrongs might never have been redressed. From the moment they are redressed, further interference by Germany will bring not more blessings, but only misery and ruin. Thus all paths in Czechoslovakia lead to Prague and to agreement. Such a settlement, if accepted by Germany, would be a notable contribution to peace, and might well be the herald of better days for all Europe. No one knows, however, what are the resolves and plans of the group of high personages who wield and direct the might of Germany. The persistent campaign of the German controlled Press against the Czechs is not a favourable sign. One must admire the discipline and astonishing self-restraint which has characterised the Czech authorities, military and police, and still more the Czech population, during these weeks of electioneering excitement and keenly felt danger. When one large section of the population seems to be inviting a foreign army to invade and conquer the homeland, when flags, songs, badges, white stockings, offer numberless causes of provocation, and when any hothead on either side can start a riot, it is indeed wonderful that this agitated month should have passed without any widespread outbreak of passion or violence. Evidently these people are serious-minded. Evidently they have need to be. This again is a reassuring factor.
But, of course, if it were the deliberate purpose of the German Government to bring great issues to a head, there would be no difficulty in creating incidents, capable of being represented as mortal affronts. If existing Sudeten leaders were thought too accommodating, there are many means by which they could be corrected or displaced. All depends upon the brooding figure at Berchtesgaden and the clash of his fierce lieutenants in Berlin. It is to this process of reflection that efforts for peace should be directed.
The Czechoslovakian Government have decided to keep strong forces on guard along their frontiers. Their object is no doubt to make the invasion of their country an operation which will require very large troop movements in Germany. The larger the scale of the movements the harder it is to conceal them. Thus there should be time to mobilise the whole national defence. This constitutes a very substantial deterrent upon a sudden onslaught. Pro-German propaganda in Great Britain is eager to suggest that the overrunning of Czechoslovakia, if not as easy as that of Austria, would at most be a matter of a few days. We are told how swiftly armoured divisions will rush in from every side breaking down all opposition with irresistible fury. But this is not the picture which presents itself to the experienced student of modern war. A well-conceived system of forts and concrete pill-boxes, a judicious improvement of natural obstacles, the thorough mining of roads and bridges, should, if backed by a stubborn army, bring any rapid thrust to a standstill. It would then be necessary for the invader to move up the masses of men, and assemble and supply the immense artillery, necessary for the reduction of fortified positions.
Thus, whatever else may happen, an easy walk-over transforms itself into a grave and costly operation of war. Before embarking on such a plan, an aggressive Government would have to contemplate general mobilisation, the employment of a large portion of its whole army, and at least three or four hundred thousand casualties. Even taken by itself, such an enterprise would be heart-shaking to any modern Power, especially to one just recovering from a defeat in which nearly the whole world gradually came against her. But would the issue stand by itself? Would Czechoslovakia be left to struggle week after week against an avalanche of fire and steel? There is the explicit French declaration to the contrary. There is the Russian engagement, which should not be lightly discounted. There is the statement which the Prime Minister made in the House of Commons about Czechoslovakia. No poorer service can be done to peace than to belittle these massive deterrents. We have only to recall the swift rise of temperature which occurred in British public opinion during the annexation of Austria, bloodless as it was, to imagine the effects of a fearful conflict raging day by day between the invading armies of a great Power and the heroic defenders of a small civilised State. Until, in 1914, the German armies actually broke into Belgium, not one out of twenty in the British nation but would have voted against Continental war. Forty-eight hours later it was a hundred to one the other way.
Parliament and the public have approved the circumspect and restrained position which Mr. Chamberlain and his Majesty's Government have adopted, but no one who remembers the past can doubt that circumstances and national feeling may upon occasion pass beyond the control even of the most sincerely peace-loving British Administration. It may be that some of these reflections played their part in the very definite easement of the Czechoslovakian problem which occurred a month ago. It is certain that the great mass of the German people of all classes, while deeply grateful to their Fuehrer for leading them back from the trough of defeat to the uplands of power, would regard the renewal of the late world war-for this is what it may well prove-with the utmost grief and alarm. It is well known that the German military leaders are foremost in counselling caution and delay. The honourable rehabilitation of General Von Fritsch is a proof that the influence of the German army with the Fuehrer has not been overborne by the machinations of extremists in the Nazi party and its instrument the political police.
These summer months may well be anxious; but no one has a right to despair of a good solution. A settlement and reconciliation in Czechoslovakia would be no humiliation to Herr Hitler. On the contrary, he could rightly claim that his exertions had won for the Sudeten Germans honourable status and a rightful place in the land of their birth; and that the process by which these reforms had been achieved had strengthened rather than shaken the foundations of European peace.
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