Up till a few years ago many people in Britain admired the work which the extraordinary man Signor Mussolini had done for his country. He had brought it out of incipient anarchy into a position of dignity and order, which was admired even by those who regretted the suspension of Italian freedom. The English, although opposed to the Fascist idea, were glad to see Italy become a stronger nation, and in the sincerity of old friendship wished her well.
Since 1935 great changes have occurred. The conquest of Abyssinia, the violation of all pledges given to members of the League of Nations, the enforced retreat of the British Government from its Sanctions policy, have painfully altered the historic relations of the two peoples. The invasion of Spain by regular divisions of the Italian army, the repeated sinking of British ships by Italian aeroplanes, and at one time by Italian submarines thinly disguised by sale or loan to Franco, have made a profound impression upon the British working-classes; this has been worsened by the pretence of non-intervention maintained brazenly and persistently in defiance of truth and fact.
In March 1938, Mr. Neville Chamberlain made a vehement effort to forget the past and restore the old friendship. He forced Mr. Eden's resignation and became, in fact if not in form, his own Foreign Secretary. The Anglo-Italian Agreement was framed; and although the conditions about Spain prescribed by the British Government were not fulfilled, this agreement has now been ratified. In every respect it was favourable to Italy. Britain, which had taken the lead in imposing Sanctions to protect Abyssinia from aggression, now took the lead in recognising the Italian conquest, which has certainly not yet been completed. But neither a withdrawal of the Italian troops from Spain nor a revival of former goodwill has requited the Prime Minister's well-meant endeavours. His recent visit to Rome upon a somewhat chilly invitation produced nothing but polite recognition on both sides of wide differences of outlook and divergence of paths.
Meanwhile on the great field of Europe Germany has become the dominant, aggressive power. Austria has fallen; Czechoslovakia has been subjugated; German authority and German trade stride forward together down the Danube Valley. The steel-helmets of the German army glint upon the Brenner Pass. In the unequal partnership of the two Dictators, Hitler has gained everything, and Mussolini nothing. At the same time, the keeping of a large, wholly unproductive army in Abyssinia, without the slightest control of the country or chance of developing it, has imposed a grievous strain upon Italian finance and economy. The very large Italian forces maintained in Libya to-day are an aggravation.
But it is in Spain that Italian blood, money and munitions have been most seriously engaged. The Germans have contented themselves with sending specialists, technicians and aviators, together with masses of war material from their overflowing factories. Mussolini has actually done a large part of General Franco's fighting for him. Italian stocks of munitions of all kinds have been drawn upon heavily, and the burden upon the Italian people has become ever harder for them to bear. During the last year, for the first time, criticism has been rife in the ruling circles of Italian life and politics; and although the repeated submissions of the Western democracies to Dictatorial demands have veiled the movement of forces, there is no doubt that both Italy and her leader are to-day in a condition at once strained and fragile.
As a result of all these exertions and manœuvres Mussolini finds himself entirely in the hands of Hitler. His need to have some prize that can be exhibited to the Italian nation, to have some share in the immense gains gathered by Germany, has become imperious. But Hitler is the rich uncle who alone can help the loyal but improvident nephew through his difficulties. It must be admitted that the uncle is under obligations which must appeal alike to his good faith and his generosity. Will the uncle pay the bill, and can he fit its payment in with other heavy charges and projects? That is the question which exercises many minds to-day. It seems that from the British visit to Rome Mussolini learned that Mr. Neville Chamberlain had reached the limits of appeasement. The British Parliament is averse from making further one-sided concessions. In the approach of a General Election public opinion must be considered. Patience and readiness to respond to fair dealing are all that Great Britain can offer to the solution of Mussolini's problems.
Meanwhile, he has deliberately picked a quarrel with the French Republic. One has to look far and wide through the annals of Europe for such an apparently wanton provocation. Demands for Nice, Corsica and Tunis, obviously fomented by official authority, a campaign of calumny and insult in the Government-controlled Press, the denunciation of agreements hitherto deemed satisfactory, taunts and threats, are all the reward which France has reaped from her recognition of Italian sovereignty over Abyssinia. Here again Signor Mussolini comes to a full-stop; and it is of the utmost importance that he should not be misled, or mislead his countrymen.
The French, like the British, are anxious to live in peace. They have exposed themselves both to injury and mockery to prove that this is so. But it would be imprudent, and is indeed impossible, to disguise the fact that the French nation is now determined to resist by force of arms any attack, even the smallest, upon their territory. There is a new spirit of resolve in France; it animates all classes and parties. No delusion could be more dangerous to Mussolini than that, for instance, an attack upon Jibuti would be treated as a remote local incident upon which a conference might subsequently sit. It would be a major act of war involving the two leading Mediterranean Powers. Such a war might be immediately widened into a general catastrophe.
Is this what Signor Mussolini wants? Are his embarrassments at home so serious that only a world-wide explosion affords a means of escape? Do the Italian people realise that they might easily be drawn into a struggle which would either end in their defeat or in their rescue by Germany at a price fatal to their independence? There are also dangers connected with Spain which may lead to a disaster beyond the power of British goodwill to avert.
We must all devoutly hope that the Italian Dictator will count the cost before opening the flood-gates of carnage upon the world-and upon no part of the world more than the highly vulnerable country of which he has so long been the spirited and successful chief.
At this time a series of extremely encouraging statements upon future prospects in Europe and the speedy advent of a golden age were made by leading Ministers of the Crown. These authoritative pronouncements were largely accepted by the British press.
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